Forecasting the level of saturation of e-business in Poland considering the number of existing e-enterprises

Mirosław Moroz, Barbara Fura

Abstract

E-business sector in Poland is dynamically growing since its inception in the mid-90s of the 20th century. The number of new e-shops, portals or online applications, as well as turnovers is increasing every year. As a consequence, in 2013, e-commerce sector generated over 5% of Polish GDP. However, since such growth will not last endlessly, a research problem aroused . The purpose of this paper is to estimate a the number of companies enough to saturate this sector, as well as to forecast the maximum time needed to gain this status. A logistic regression model was used to measure the amount of enterprises within a moment of e-business market saturation, and duration needed to reach its peak.

Conducted research are indicating that potential entrepreneurs should not delay the launch of their e-business. For existing businesses the consequences of the sector saturation should lead to an increase in professional management of e-business and/or an increase in the scale of such activity.

Bibliography

• Anghern A., Design Mature Internet Business Strategies: The ICDT Model, „European Management Journal” 1997, Vol. 15, No. 4, s. 361-369.
• Cieślak M., Prognozowanie gospodarcze. Metody i zastosowanie, PWN, Warszawa 2005.
• Cyfrowa przyszłość Polski. Fundamenty rozwoju konkurencyjnej gospodarki w dobie globalizacji, 2013, http://konkurencyjnapolska.pl/cyfrowa_przyszlosc_raport.pdf.
• Grzechowiak M., et al., Internet 2k10, International Data Group Poland SA, http://files.idg.pl/news/Raport_Internet_2k10.zip.
• Feliksiak M., Internauci 2015, 2015, CBOS, http://www.cbos.pl/SPISKOM.POL/2015/K_090_15.PDF.
• Hoisl K., Stelzer T., Biala S., Forecasting technological discontinuities in the ICT industry, „Research Policy” 2015, Vol. 44, No. 2, s. 522-532, http:/dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2014.10.004.
• Kim J., An exit for the IT industry?: Market saturation and the convergence of ubiquitous technology for manufacturing and service sectors, „International Journal of Technology Management” 2008, Vol. 41, No. 3-4, s. 407-419, http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2008.01679.
• Kollmann T, Krell P., Innovative electronic business:Current Trends and Future Potentials, [w:] Nasir S., (red.), Modern Entrepreneurship and E-business Innovations, IGI Global, Hershey 2013.
• Laszkiewicz M., et al., E-commerce grows in Poland faster than the whole trade, 2013, http://www2.deloitte.com/pl/pl/pages/podcasty/articles/Podcast-E-commerce-rosnie-w-Polsce-szybciej-niz-caly-sektor-handlu.html.
• Lindemane M., Saturation of financial market as stimulus for export of financial services, „Journal of Business Management” 2011, No. 4, s. 74-84.
• Moroz M., Kształtowanie elastyczności przedsiębiorstw internetowych, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, Wrocław 2013.
• Neokosmidis I., et al., Assessment of the gap and (non-) Internet users evolution based on population biology dynamics, „Telecommunications Policy” 2015, Vol. 39, No. 1, s. 14-37, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2014.10.006.
• Popławski T., Wybrane zagadnienia prognozowania długoterminowego w systemach elektroenergetycznych, Wydawnictwo Politechniki Częstochowskiej, Częstochowa 2012.
• Porter M.E., Strategia konkurencji. Metody analizy sektorów i konkurentów, PWE, Warszawa 1999.
• Sampaio P., Saraiva P., Rodrigues A.G., ISO 9001 certification research: questions, answers and approaches, „International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management” 2009, Vol. 26, No. 1, s. 38-58, http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/02656710910924161.
• Turban E., et al., Electronic Commerce. A Managerial Perspective, Pearson Pretience Hall, Upper Saddle River 2006.